Here's my list of Australian cannabis predictions for 2023.
Make of them what you will, and in a year we'll re-visit and see how many (if any) of them are correct.
Amnesty and Driving laws.
Amnesty on genuine patient homegrow and proof of impairment provisions in at least one and maybe two or three other states, those being Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia.
These changes will come off the back of the recommendations made in the 2020 Senate Inquiry, Current barriers to patient access to medicinal cannabis in Australia.
Specifically, rec 20 which states;
The committee recommends that the Australian Government, through COAG, encourage a review of state and territory criminal legislation in relation to:
- amnesties for the possession and/or cultivation of cannabis for genuine self-medication purposes; and
- current drug driving laws and their implications for patients with legal medicinal cannabis prescriptions.
Recommendation 20 is about human rights and giving the Government a workable method for the two deliverables of affordable access and no impairment.
I believe Victoria will be the litmus test, helped along by a closer look at article 22 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, how the Victorian equivalent shapes up against it, and the makeup of the new Upper House.
Although free development of personality isn't specifically mentioned in the Victorian act, it is specifcally mentioned in the UNDHR, and was the crux of the argument used in Mexico.
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If paid opposition to the proposals can be contained, the approach will be endorsed at a national level and go the other States and Territories in 2024.
ASX listed PotStocks.
I think there will be a lot of pain for Mums and Dads, and there will be a continuation of overspending and long lunches at most, if not all of the listed cannabis companies.
People will continue to believe the hype and won't do the research to understand about the incredibly small market on offer or the barriers to growth that have been created by the government and the sector itself.
There will also be little thought as to why Australian potstocks seem to be repeating so many of the same investment and strategy mistakes that were made in Canada..¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Vapes.
Don't be surprised to see the TGA (Therapeutics Goods Administration) change their mind over cannabis vapes, as pressure from the anti nicotine / tobacco vape crowd will invariably attract attention from the regulator.
Hemp.
Expect to see changes here on a federal level to reform the uniquely Australian situation with hemp not being allowed to be used for CBD.
Caveat being that change will only occur after TGA approves at least one OTC (over the counter) CBD product for listing on the ARTG (Australian Register of Therapeutic Goods).
Opportunities still exist in hemp, but until there's readily accessible commercial sized downstream processing (fibre) investment, I feel there exists little hope for the fibre side of the hemp industry to move forward in a meaningful way in Australia.
I'm hopeful someone will see the value and pull the trigger on a commercial sized bast (fibre) and hurd separation facility in 2023.
Here's a sneak preview video of what's needed here in Australia, so that farmers have something to actually sell into a commercially viable value / production chain where additional processing can/will occur.
Medical Cannabis
Introduction of the previously announced changes in respect to GMP, TGO93 and imports.
Conforming with TGO 93 (Standard for Medicinal Cannabis)
What change this makes for patients is yet to be seen, but my best guess is price increases as the levels of stock in the Australian system get lower and the options become even fewer for doctors and patients.
Nobody wants weed pills..
Adult use Cannabis
There will be no adult use cannabis changes in Australia in 2023.
There will be much posturing, but there will be no real change for anyone in regards to adult use.